Each week I look at a few “experts” sites for their rankings. I also like to check out the projections to give myself a good chuckle since it is nearly impossible to guess who will get the TDs each week in the NFL. “Experts” need to stop pretending they can do it. There are a few site who have started showing what the chances are that a player might score, which makes much more sense, but I don’t know how accurate they are yet. I think we can all agree that Calvin Johnson has a better chance at a TD than Kendall Wright based on the fact that he gets more targets, their offense is better, he has a better QB, he’s a beast, etc.
This week I had some time so I copied the Fantasy Sharks projections into a spreadsheet and started looking at the numbers. I found some discrepancies that should have been pretty easy to catch before they published them.
They are projecting 55 passing TDs this week and only 33 receiving TDs. How is this possible?
Some examples (they are all highlighted in red in the sheet below):
- Shawn Hill is projected to throw 2 TDs. No Rams player is projected to catch any.
- Drew Brees is projected to throw 3 TDs. Jimmy Graham is projected to catch 1, the rest of the team will catch 0.
- The Titans have a passing TD by Zach Mettenberger as well as one by Jake Locker. However no one on the Titans is projected to catch one.
Here is a the sheet I threw together on Google docs.
Maybe these numbers are being spit out by some algorithm, but that is pretty bad. At least check to see if your stuff adds up or stop projecting TDs.
My question is what is the best way to show the chances each player has at a TD?
Is anyone doing a good job of this?
Is there a formula that could be built that looks at:
- how many red zone snaps the player gets
- how many red zone touches the player gets
- how many rushing or receiving TDs their opponent allows