TriPod Uncensored

I decided to look into trying to devise a way to predict the chances a player has at getting a TD in a given game. I am not there yet but I think I like the path I’m on.

First I started with trying to figure out how many TDs I think each team will score each week. At some point in the last few weeks I ran across someone posting online about using Vegas to help predict the scores of games for fantasy purposes. Since we have all experienced just how good Vegas can be at that stuff it made sense. I will just use one game (Cleveland vs. Atlanta) to demonstrate what I’m thinking.  Read more of this post

Each week I look at a few “experts” sites for their rankings. I also like to check out the projections to give myself a good chuckle since it is nearly impossible to guess who will get the TDs each week in the NFL. “Experts” need to stop pretending they can do it. There are a few site who have started showing what the chances are that a player might score, which makes much more sense, but I don’t know how accurate they are yet. I think we can all agree that Calvin Johnson has a better chance at a TD than Kendall Wright based on the fact that he gets more targets, their offense is better, he has a better QB, he’s a beast, etc.

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