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Nonsense and Fantasy Sports

My First Attempt at Predicting TD Chances

I decided to look into trying to devise a way to predict the chances a player has at getting a TD in a given game. I am not there yet but I think I like the path I’m on.

First I started with trying to figure out how many TDs I think each team will score each week. At some point in the last few weeks I ran across someone posting online about using Vegas to help predict the scores of games for fantasy purposes. Since we have all experienced just how good Vegas can be at that stuff it made sense. I will just use one game (Cleveland vs. Atlanta) to demonstrate what I’m thinking.

Vegas has the odds at:

If Vegas is correct on both we can predict an approximate final score. I rounded them to likely football scores instead of 25-22 lets use this:

So that would mean:

We have to assume that all of the TDs are offensive. I doubt that Vegas counts on a Pick Six in their numbers so that should work.

From there I started to dig in to how Cleveland scores TDs and how they run plays in the Red Zone. Do they run or throw more? Who gets the carries and who gets the targets?

That took some digging and a 1 month subscription to rotowire but you can see how they do things and who the most likely candidates would be for getting those 3 TDs. After doing all this digging I realized that Cleveland was a bad choice for this with because John Gordon is coming back this week but whatever.

From here I don’t know the best way to go. I would say that since they rush the ball 2/3 of the time inside the red zone there is a good chance that 2 of the 3 are on the ground. But when you look at their TD totals for the year they are close to 50/50 running/passing. There is also the fact that Crowell got the majority of the work last week instead of West. I also didn’t have time to include the TEs.

With all that I think you could make a prediction by “feel” instead of a mathematical result like…West and Crowell each have a GOOD chance to score and Hawkins and Gordon have a DECENT chance. It could look like this:

I think this would be helpful to me if it was detailed for the Top 50 RBs, Top 50 WRs and Top 20 TEs. You could also use it to predict how many TD passes a QB could have.

What do you think?

– Brando